Recomputed continuously from production data. Lead time = our alert timestamp vs the first matched newswire item for the same event. Market move = the affected company's own equity, close-to-close across the next trading session, in σ of its normal daily move (0.67σ would be random noise). No cherry-picking: every matched event since tracking began is in here.
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"Beat the wire" counts only events we could automatically match to a newswire item — unmatched events are excluded rather than assumed in our favour. Categories marked "learning" have fewer than a handful of scored moves and get no effect estimate in the product either. Fat-tailed categories (earthquakes, fires) are monitored for the rare large event; their median understates why they exist. Past performance of signals is not a prediction of future market behaviour.